Trump’s Foreign Policy

Trump’s Foreign Policy is based on three principles:
* A few Great Powers (at this time, three)
* Spheres of Influence of the Great Powers
* Colonialism
The three Great Powers are the USA, Russia, and China. All other countries will either fall into the Sphere of Influence of one of those three, or will try to make it on their own, establishing their own spheres of influence, and playing one Great Power off against another. Examples of those secondary powers may include Turkey, India, Australia, Brazil, and the EU.
Each Great Power will have political, military, and commercial dominance in their respective Sphere of Influence. There will be mutual recognition of each Great Power’s Sphere of Influence, with deals to avoid confrontations if possible, and unofficial agreements to refrain from disturbing the power balance between the Great Powers, and to avoid meddling within another Great Power’s Sphere of Influence.
The Sphere of Influence of the USA will include North America, Central America (especially Panama and the Canal), parts of South America, Greenland (of course), Japan and South Korea, Israel and its conquered lands, and possibly Saudi Arabia, Australia, the UK, and the Western Europe part of the EU. Trump’s USA will use both military and covert forces to influence and gain control in countries that will be targeted. We will see the return of the CIA covert actions (under Trump’s new CIA head) to destabilize governments, assassinate leaders, and foment revolutions in South American countries.
The Sphere of Influence of Russia will include the former Soviet Union (Trump will regard this as “natural”) including Eastern Europe (eventually, splitting up the EU), central Asia, and possibly satellites such as Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, and parts of Africa. Russia will use “soft power”, disinformation, etc. to destabilize the governments of European countries and pick up as many as they can (such as Hungary, Moldova, Serbia and its area), with eventual outright military conquest of holdouts (the Baltics, likely Poland, possibly others).
The Sphere of Influence of China will include most of non-Russian Asia, the South China Sea, southeast Asia, North Korea (although Russia may want that), Singapore, and Taiwan.
Trump will illustrate “The Art of the Deal” by working a deal with China to allow them to take Taiwan, as long as they do it relatively peacefully, and guarantee a continued supply of computer chips from the Taiwanese factories. Taiwan may become like Hong Kong, nominally self-governing but completely under the control of China.
Along with Spheres of Influence, the Great Powers will have ability and practical authority to create – capture – colonies. Of course that term will not be used, but the function and process will be the same as before. Trump’s intention to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal Zone with military force if necessary are classic colonial actions – taking over a formerly sovereign country to benefit the Great Power, maintaining oppressive military control over the colony’s populace, and raping the colony of its natural resources to benefit the corporate and commercial elements of the Great Power.
The “peace” deal with Russia over Ukraine will be the first visible sign of this rearrangement of the World Order into a New World Order of Great Powers. Ukraine will become at best a puppet of Russia, with a demilitarized zone between the two for appearance’s sake. But the reality is that Surrender still leads to Peace.
The deal in Ukraine will at first appear to lead to peace. But it will give Russia plenty of time to rearm and update and modernize their military. With this peace deal, Trump will end all sanctions against Russia, allowing Russia to recover both economically and militarily in a short period of time. It will embolden Russia to recover its “natural” Sphere of Influence in Eastern Europe. When Trump leaves office (if he does), if his successors try to challenge or change this deal between the Great Powers, inevitably wars will break out that will be blamed on the then-current administration, even though the basis for those wars will have been established by Trump’s deals and foreign policy.

© 2024 by Bruce Merchant bbmerchant@icloud.com